Fission around

May 4, 2007

By BERNARD L. WEINSTEIN

Fort Worth Star-Telegram

For decades, Texas has been the nation's fastest-growing large state, adding population and employment at a multiple of the national averages.

The state has a current population of 23.5 million and an employment base of 10 million. According to the Texas Workforce Commission, just over 892,000 of these jobs were in the manufacturing sector, accounting for more than 9 percent of non-agricultural employment. The state is projected to grow to 40 million by 2030 and add nearly 5 million jobs.

Implicit in these projections is an assumption that reliable and adequate supplies of electricity will be available at a reasonable cost. But by the end of the decade, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, electricity demand could well outstrip supply. Indeed, ERCOT projects that Texas will need up to 48,000 megawatts of new power just to keep up with expected demand.

Some have argued that Texas' future power demands can be satisfied largely through a combination of conservation and renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. But even under the most optimistic assumptions of their potential, the state's utilities still will have to construct dozens of base-load power plants in the next several decades.

At present, Texas relies predominantly on natural gas for power generation -- about 72 percent of capacity -- compared to a national average of 46 percent. Coal accounts for 19 percent of Texas' capacity, while nuclear plants produce only 6 percent of the state's electricity.

Because natural gas prices have tripled during the past several years, electricity costs in Texas are currently well above the national average and by far the highest in the Sun Belt. High power costs not only put Texas' many energy-intensive industries at risk but also burden the state's large and growing number of low-income households.

If new coal plants are more or less off the table for the present, how will Texas produce the needed megawatts to keep the economy humming?

Additional natural gas plants are one solution, though increasing their share of the power mix will propel electricity costs even higher. Texas is already the No. 1 producer of wind energy in the U.S., and plans are under way to double the number of windmills during the next several years. But all the operating and planned windmills in Texas will produce power equivalent to only one mid-size coal boiler.

Given the current economic and political realities, building nuclear plants in Texas is the sensible option.

America hasn't seen an order for a new nuclear plant that's been completed since the 1970s. Fortunately, favorable public sentiment toward nuclear energy is rising.

In Texas, several large utilities are planning to build nuclear facilities. TXU is considering up to five new plants, while NRG, Exelon and Amarillo Power are also evaluating new nuclear plants. If all the plans materialize, Texas could have more reactors than any other state a decade from now. What's more, because these plants will be built in a deregulated market, any missteps would be borne by shareholders -- not the ratepayers.

As for safety issues, the nuclear industry can point to almost 60 years of commercial operation without a fatal radiation-related accident. And the industry has transported more than 10,000 used fuel assemblies without incident to temporary storage sites. Once the U.S. Department of Energy begins accepting nuclear waste at Nevada's Yucca Mountain, the controversy over what to do with high-level waste finally will be over.

In today's economy, businesses must operate with an eye on their global cost structure. To remain competitive, Texas must offer an attractive economic environment and cost structure on all fronts -- including utility costs. Thus, lower-cost and dependable nuclear generating plants are a sensible choice for a portion of the state's future power needs.

Adding these plants to the fuel mix will diversify Texas' energy sources, ensure reliability and help hold down electric power costs in the decades ahead with attendant benefits to current and prospective households and businesses as well as the environment.

Bernard L. Weinstein is a professor of applied economics and director of the Center for Economic Development and Research at the University of North Texas in Denton.

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